Enhancing disaster management and
resilience to floods through exploratory
scenario planning in Colombia: A toolkit for practitioners and communities

This toolkit is a tool to support planning departments, practitioners, and communities looking to be more resilient to urban risks and more prepared for the challenges of climate change and environmental risk associated with water in urban and coastal areas. Our two selected case studies in Barrio Policarpa in Cartagena and Tunjuelo River Low Basin in Bogotá explore the potential of exploratory scenario planning (XSP) in different urban contexts: an informal settlement in a coastal area (Barrio Policarpa, Cartagena) and a high-density urban area in a high-altitude city (Tunjuelo River Low Basin, Bogotá).

This toolkit was produced in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Consortium for Scenario Planning as part of the consortium's 2024 Scenario Planning Request for Proposals.

Colombia is a country prone to various natural and man-made disasters, including earthquakes, land-slides, floods, droughts, volcanic eruptions, and armed conflicts. These disasters often result in significant loss of life, severe economic damage, and disruption to essential services. To effectively mitigate the impact of such disasters and build resilience, it is crucial to have robust disaster management strategies, instruments, and tools in place.
Exploratory scenario planning (XSP) is an innovative tool that can help in preparing for and managing these disasters efficiently. However, the instances of XSP use in Colombia are very few. There are some studies and research for supporting urban planning and ex-pansion plans in Bogotá, such as those for assessing urban expansion trends carried out by FINDETER and IDOM Consultancies (2018). Another case show-casing the use of XSP was developed by the Alcaldía of Bucaramanga to formulate prospective scenarios as inputs for an international contest of an urban growth model for the city north expansion